Analysis of NSMQ 2018 Finals and Other Matters Arising
The Finals of the 2018 National Science and Math Quiz (NSMQ) was a rather thrilling and close contest. It featured West Africa SHS (WASS), Adisadel College (ADISCO) and St. Peters SHS (PERSCO). At the end of the contest, St. Peters emerged winners. It ended 45 PERSCO, 44 WASS and 39 ADISCO.
There was a dramatic end to the Finals with what looked like a last minute rally from WASS, only for PERSCO to snatch it in the 5th and Final Round. After the Quiz Mistress, Dr. Elsie Kaufmann announced the result for the 3rd round, ADISCO had won the first 3 rounds. However, by the end of the contest they came last of all 3 schools. What exactly happened? Also, how did WASS come so close to what would have been their first NSMQ Title? How did PERSCO win in the end? To see how all 3 teams ended up where they did, we need to see how they accumulated points towards the final question. In this short article, I will share some quick and interesting insights into the 2018 Finals with you.
Generally, it was a close contest. For majority of the contest, WASS trailed for most of the contest but was never too far off the team leading.
The interesting thing about the overall Champions, PERSCO, was that at a point in time in Round 1 and 4 they took the lead and lost it on the last question (Round 1 to ADISCO and Round 4 to WASS). When it mattered the most in the 5th Round, PERSCO held that lead. You do wonder the effect leading so narrowly in such a tight contest has on teams. Especially in a Final.
ADISCO though…
ADISCO led for most of the contest, then stumbled midway through the 4th Round. There’s a huge slump in points close to the end of Round 4. All it took was for them to lose one point 3 times in a row and it was over for them. It’s around that point the crowd at the National Theater started chanting “ADISCO!” “ADISCO!”.
Number of times with a lead
If we considered the number of times each team led, then Adisadel College led 24 times, St. Peters SHS 9 and West Africa SHS just 3. It was a tie between ADISCO and PERSCO on Question 6. “Number of times with a lead” can be thought of as similar to possession in Football. With 24 out of a possible 37, it shows how long Adisadel had the lead even though it was largely in the first 3 rounds and very narrow (and probably a false sense of security). In fact, throughout the Final, the average point gap between the team in the lead and the team trailing in 3rd was 5 points.
It will be great to place how close the 2018 Finals was into context by comparing it to the average points gap within each contest from past years. However, all we have is the final score of each contest of the last few years so that’s what is used below.
When compared to the 138 other contests from the Quarterfinals of 2015 to the Finals of 2017, the 2018 Finals places in the Top 20 closest contests. It was a close and great Final.
Congratulations to St. Peters SHS! Thanks for reading. All code used in this analysis can be found here.
Want to connect or have a question about this article, please leave a response below or tweet at me at @DaveQuartey.
